Horizon scan for future forest management issues

I am proud to have supported an important research exercise which set out to horizon scan for issues that are likely to affect forest management in the UK within the next 50 years. The results of this work are published today.

A well-used method was adopted to conduct the horizon-scanning exercise conducted by a diverse Expert Panel that I joined earlier this year. We collated and prioritised a long-list of 180 issues to arrive at a final list of 15 priority issues. I am one of the co-authors of a scientific paper published today in the International Journal of Forest Research which presents the findings.

Schematic of the 15 issues likely to affect UK forest management in future

The Fifteen Issues

The final 15 issues arose from a process which removed duplicates and collated issues into themes, and these were then ranked. The final list should not be considered a ranked list (i.e. that 10 is more significant than 11), however, Issue 1 – Catastrophic forest ecosystem collapse was the most highly ranked issue, with 64% of the Expert Panel ranking it as their top issue and 88% ranking it within their top three.

Catastrophic forest ecosystem collapse
Increased drought and flooding change the social costs and benefits of trees
Forest management becomes more challenging due to changing seasonal working windows
Protecting and enhancing soil microbial ecology becomes a higher priority
Viruses and viroids emerge as pathogens of increasing importance for trees
eDNA revolutionizes our understanding of forest ecosystems
Trees are at the heart of future urban planning
The Taskforce on Nature-related Financial Disclosures (TNFD) drives transparency and investment in nature-positive management
Natural capital funding streams are greatly upscaled
New technologies facilitate widespread adoption of smart silviculture
New technologies improve worker health and safety
New wood product markets stimulate more active forest management
UK commercial forest resources may not match future value chains
Unpredictable supply and demand dynamics in global wood product markets
International commitments will spotlight ecosystem integrity and drive monitoring efforts

“The issues represent a diverse range of themes, within a spectrum of influences from environmental shocks and perturbations to changing political and socio-economic drivers, with complex emerging interactions between them. The most highly ranked issue was ‘Catastrophic forest ecosystem collapse’, reflecting agreement that not only is such collapse a likely prospect but it would also have huge implications across the sector and wider society.”
Tew et al. (2023). “A Horizon Scan of Issues Affecting UK Forest Management within 50 Years.” Forestry: An International Journal of Forest Research.

hematic analysis of workshop discussions. The coloured panels on the left and right, and circle in the middle, indicate the three major categories that were identified. Key themes are indicated by the white squares and boxes. Rounded triangles denote issue numbers placed against the part of the model they most closely align to.

The research paper has already attracted widespread media interest, including this article in The Guardian.

It will be interesting to observe how it influences policy development in future, both within government and by other actors in the forestry sector.

Citation

Tew, Eleanor R, Bianca Ambrose-Oji, Malcolm Beatty, Ulf Büntgen, Holly Butterworth, Gerard Clover, Dan Cook, et al. 2023. “A Horizon Scan of Issues Affecting UK Forest Management within 50 Years.” Forestry: An International Journal of Forest Research.
Read full article (free access)

See more scientific publications authored by Gabriel Hemery